All 160 schools, most to least likely

• 1. Ponce Health Sciences University School of Medicine~54%Very Likely

  PR · MD

  Out-of-state at a private school that fills ~58% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is at or above their 503 upper range.

• 2. Northeast Ohio Medical University~42%Very Likely

  OH · MD · in-state

  In-state at a public school that fills ~81% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.64-3.94 range.

• 3. Wright State University Boonshoft School of Medicine~32%Likely

  OH · MD · in-state

  In-state at a public school that fills ~72% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.47-3.73 range.

• 4. Uniformed Services University Hebert School of Medicine~31%Likely

  MD · MD

  GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.49-3.75 range.

• 5. University of Toledo College of Medicine~29%Likely

  OH · MD · in-state

  In-state at a public school that fills ~63% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 is below their 3.70 lower range.

• 6. San Juan Bautista School of Medicine~25%Likely

  PR · MD

  Out-of-state at a private school that fills ~68% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is at or above their 504 upper range.

• 7. University of Cincinnati College of MedicineFocus~25%Likely

  OH · MD · in-state

  In-state at a public school that fills ~63% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 is below their 3.78 lower range.

• 8. Roseman University College of Medicine~24%Likely

  NV · MD

  GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.68-3.94 range.

• 9. Ohio State University College of MedicineFocus~23%Likely

  OH · MD · in-state

  In-state at a public school that fills ~58% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 is below their 3.75 lower range.

• 10. University of Oklahoma College of Medicine~17%Unlikely

  OK · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~55% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.68-3.94 range.

• 11. University of Missouri Kansas City School of Medicine~16%Unlikely

  MO · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~60% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 is below their 3.72 lower range.

• 12. Meharry Medical College~14%Unlikely

  TN · MD

  MCAT 511 is at or above their 507 upper range; they accept ~2.7% of all applicants.

• 13. Creighton University School of Medicine~13%Unlikely

  NE · MD

  GPA 3.68 is below their 3.75 lower range.

• 14. Case Western Reserve University School of MedicineFocus~12%Unlikely

  OH · MD · in-state

  In-state at a private school that fills ~15% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is below their 515 lower range.

• 15. Howard University College of Medicine~12%Unlikely

  DC · MD

  MCAT 511 is at or above their 509 upper range; they accept ~2.7% of all applicants.

• 16. Loma Linda University School of Medicine~12%Unlikely

  CA · MD

  GPA 3.68 is below their 3.74 lower range.

• 17. Universidad Central del Caribe School of Medicine~10%Unlikely

  PR · MD

  Out-of-state at a private school that fills ~92% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is at or above their 505 upper range.

• 18. Carle Illinois College of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  IL · MD

  MCAT 511 sits inside their 510-517 range.

• 19. CUNY School of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  NY · MD

  MCAT 511 sits inside their 505-512 range.

• 20. UMass Chan Medical School~8%Unlikely

  MA · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~61% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.67-3.93 range.

• 21. University of Mississippi School of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  MS · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~100% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is at or above their 510 upper range.

• 22. University of New Mexico School of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  NM · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~79% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is at or above their 510 upper range.

• 23. University of North Dakota School of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  ND · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~64% of its class in-state; MCAT 511 is at or above their 511 upper range.

• 24. University of Puerto Rico School of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  PR · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~94% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 is below their 3.73 lower range.

• 25. UTMB John Sealy School of Medicine~8%Unlikely

  TX · MD

  Out-of-state at a public school that fills ~90% of its class in-state; GPA 3.68 sits inside their 3.67-3.93 range.

Estimated acceptance rate for applicants whose academic profile looks like yours. Each starts from that school's own acceptance rate, computed from the applications and matriculants it reports to the AAMC or AACOM, then adjusts for how applicants with your numbers have actually fared nationally, for the school's published in-state shares, and for your experience hours, grade trend, MCAT balance and timing. Historical estimates, not predictions about you. Every figure's source.

A solid, well-rounded file carried by experience depth, held back slightly by GPA rather than test score or hours.

Your MCAT of 511 sits right at the 512.1 national matriculant average, so the test is not what separates you from the pool. Your cGPA of 3.68 and sGPA of 3.61 sit below the 3.81/3.75 averages, and that gap is the harder one to close because the transcript is already written, even with an upward trend working in your favor. Every experience row runs above typical: 650 clinical hours (nearly triple the ~250 benchmark), 60 shadowing hours, 400 research hours with a symposium poster, and 180 non-clinical volunteering hours. That clinical total is direct patient-facing work as a medical assistant, not passive observation, and it should read as a real strength at screening (AAMC). Leadership hours sit exactly at the ~100 benchmark, and growing a first-gen student org from 20 to 55 members shows initiative beyond the raw hour count, but the GPA shortfall is the row admissions committees will weigh most heavily when deciding who gets an interview (Dunleavy et al., AAMC Analysis in Brief 2011).

“Typical” = published national matriculant averages.

Screeners weigh extracurriculars and life experience alongside metrics, not GPA and MCAT alone (AAMC), so the clinical hours and first-gen leadership narrative could carry this file at Likely-band schools like Cincinnati and Toledo, but GPA below stated ranges at OSU and Case Western makes an invite there less certain.

The committee notes 650 clinical hours as a medical assistant, real direct patient care rather than passive shadowing, plus Spanish intake work that speaks to service in an underserved population. Research is present but modest: 400 hours, a symposium poster, no publication, which reads thin at Ohio State where 99% of the entering class did research. GPA 3.68 and sGPA 3.61 sit below OSU's and Cincinnati's published averages, though the upward trend helps. Leadership is genuine, not titular: membership grew from 20 to 55 and a mentoring program was built, which answers Michigan's stated preference for changed-something leadership better than most files. Shadowing at 60 hours is adequate but not deep across specialties. Overall this is a service- and clinical-strong file with a research and metrics gap at research-heavy schools.

This is a mostly long-shot cycle: the computed odds show only 2 Very Likely and 7 Likely schools out of 160, so the realistic strategy is to apply to every Likely-or-better school plus a curated set of mission-aligned long shots, not a balanced likely/target/reach spread. The applicant's 650 clinical hours, Spanish-language intake work, sustained food-pantry service, and first-gen leadership carry weight at service- and community-mission schools, while thin research output (400 hours, one poster, no publication) and a 3.68/3.61 GPA below several targeted medians remain real weaknesses at research-heavy schools like Michigan and Pittsburgh. All five explicitly requested focus schools are included below with honest framing of their odds.

• Ponce Health Sciences University School of MedicineVery Likely~54%

  This is the strongest computed odds in the table and the applicant's Spanish-language intake work for a third of the clinic's patients speaks directly to Ponce's bilingual eligibility requirement and its mission of culturally competent care for Spanish-speaking populations.

• Northeast Ohio Medical UniversityVery Likely~42%

  As an Ohio resident with two years of hands-on family medicine clinical work, this applicant matches NEOMED's founding purpose of producing primary care physicians 'for and from Ohio,' though the file should lean harder into stated primary-care intent for the interview.

• Wright State University Boonshoft School of MedicineLikely~32%

  Boonshoft names dedication to underserved Ohio communities and a broad appreciation of people alongside science, which fits a first-gen applicant with 180 hours of food pantry service and a neuroscience/Spanish-clinic background, though the file could say more about intent to serve underserved Ohio specifically.

• Uniformed Services University Hebert School of MedicineLikely~31%

  The computed odds are solid, but eligibility here is a legal gate on citizenship, age, and commissioning fitness, and nothing in this file documents a demonstrated commitment to a military medical career, so this estimate assumes that commitment exists and can be evidenced.

• University of Toledo College of MedicineLikely~29%

  Toledo rewards Ohio ties and values quality of clinical exposure over hour count, and 650 hours as a medical assistant doing rooming, vitals, and medication reconciliation is exactly the kind of direct-contact experience the school says it weighs.

• San Juan Bautista School of MedicineLikely~25%

  The applicant's practical Spanish-language clinical work aligns with San Juan Bautista's mission of training linguistically diverse physicians for community health, though the school's LCME probation status is worth weighing seriously before committing time to this application.

• University of Cincinnati College of MedicineLikely~25%

  Cincinnati names five explicit review areas and this applicant has something in every one of them, clinical, research, service, leadership, and personal characteristics, but the 3.68 GPA sits below the school's 3.78 lower range and Ohio residency is this file's main lever here.

• Roseman University College of MedicineLikely~24%

  Roseman's estimate is favorable and its heavier clinical and service weighting suits the 650 clinical hours and 180 volunteer hours in this file, though no school-specific ideal-applicant detail is available to sharpen the fit further.

• Ohio State University College of MedicineLikely~23%

  OSU's committee names research and clinical experience as top priorities, and 400 research hours with a symposium poster is real but stops short of the 99% class research-participation rate and 3.90 GPA average the school reports, so this is a genuine reach within the Likely band.

• University of Oklahoma College of MedicineUnlikely~17%

  The computed odds here outrank several service-mission schools, but Oklahoma's law reserves 75% of seats for residents and its interviews probe commitment to rural Oklahoma and tribal health specifically, none of which this file, with no Oklahoma ties, currently addresses.

• Meharry Medical CollegeUnlikely~14%

  Meharry explicitly screens for sustained, demonstrated commitment to health disparities in underserved communities, and this applicant's Spanish-language clinical intake work alongside three years of food pantry service is a genuine, specific match rather than generic volunteering.

• Creighton University School of MedicineUnlikely~13%

  Creighton calls a strong, consistent volunteer record 'essential,' and three years of weekend food pantry shifts that progressed into training new volunteers is exactly the kind of sustained service history the school's own essays ask applicants to describe.

• Case Western Reserve University School of MedicineUnlikely~12%

  Case Western wants a deliberately balanced file across academics, research, clinical work, and service, and while this applicant has real activity in all four areas, the 511 MCAT sits below its 515 range and this remains a genuine long shot despite that balance.

• Howard University College of MedicineUnlikely~12%

  Howard requires direct, sustained experience with medically underserved communities as an explicit criterion, and two years of Spanish-language patient intake in a family medicine clinic is concrete evidence of exactly that.

• Universidad Central del Caribe School of MedicineUnlikely~10%

  UCC requires full bilingualism and rewards documented service to Hispanic communities, both of which this applicant's clinic role partially demonstrates, though the school's near-exclusive in-state Puerto Rico enrollment makes this a real long shot for a mainland Ohio applicant.

• Rush Medical CollegeVery Unlikely~4%

  Rush states outright that research is not a major factor in interview decisions and instead prioritizes measurable community impact, which favors this applicant's food pantry volunteer-training role and clinic work over its lighter 400-hour, no-publication research record, though the odds here remain very low.

• University of Michigan Medical SchoolVery Unlikely~4%

  Michigan's mission foregrounds discovery and defines leadership as changing the status quo, and this file's single poster with no publication and a club presidency without a described concrete change fall short of what most successful applicants there carry, making this a clear long shot as the computed odds already show.

• University of Pittsburgh School of MedicineVery Unlikely~3%

  Pitt prefers letters from research supervisors and asks applicants to engage specifically with its research infrastructure, and while 400 hours of neuroscience research with a symposium poster is a real credential, the 3.68 GPA below its 3.78 range and lack of a PI letter mentioned here keep this a long shot exactly as the odds indicate.

Clinical exposure is a genuine strength with 650 hours of direct patient care, and leadership shows real scope. Research is present but modest and unpublished, a real gap at research-heavy focus schools like OSU, Michigan, and Pitt (26-30% research weight).

3 issues found: 2 medium severity, and 1 low severity.

• Application timingmedium

  Planned submission in June 2027. AMCAS opens in late May and verification queues grow through the summer. A June submission loses the early-review advantage that rolling admissions rewards, even with a complete file.

  Fix: Have all secondary materials, letters, and transcripts ready before AMCAS opens so the application can be submitted the first week it is possible, not simply sometime in June.

• Academic metricsmedium

  cGPA 3.68 and sGPA 3.61 sit below the 2025-2026 MD matriculant averages of 3.81 cGPA and 3.75 sGPA (AAMC Table A-16). MCAT 511 is also below the 512.1 matriculant average. Admissions officers rate cumulative science GPA, cumulative GPA, and MCAT total as the top factors in the interview-invitation decision (Dunleavy et al., AAMC 2011), so this combination can cost interview invites at schools that screen heavily on numbers, even though the upward GPA trend helps.

  Fix: Target schools where this GPA/MCAT combination sits closer to the class median, lean on the strong upward GPA trend in secondaries, and consider whether a retake is worthwhile only if a future diagnostic shows real room to move the total meaningfully higher.

• Letters of evaluationlow

  4 letters are planned, meeting the typical 2 science plus 1 non-science or committee-letter standard, but it is not stated whether the neuroscience lab PI is one of them. Research-heavy schools expect a PI letter when an applicant claims 400 hours of research (per admissions guidance), and its absence would look like a gap given how much the research entry is emphasized.

  Fix: Confirm the PI from the sleep and memory project is one of the 4 letter writers, especially for schools with a strong research mission.

This is a strong file on experience hours and depth of activities, with no high-severity screen-out flags. The two real issues are a June submission that undercuts rolling-admissions timing and a GPA/MCAT profile that sits modestly below matriculant averages, both of which explain why the computed odds cluster most schools as Very Unlikely despite solid clinical, research, and service hours.